Sunday, August 14, 2016

American Presidential Election 2016 and the Voters Dilemma

The Presidential primaries and the conventions are over. Unlike in the past, this year two major political parties, especially the Republican Party failed to present a clear choice. The nominees of both parties do not have the leadership that the country is looking for at this critical juncture. The voters are left in a dilemma and compelled to choose between the best out of the worst. Let us analyze some of their distinct personalities, why Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton are the worst Presidential nominees, American voters were presented with in the recent past.

Donald Trump: The Republican Party voters were presented with 17 Presidential hopefuls. The voters choose Donald Trump rejecting the other 16 seasoned professional politicians. Donald Trump secured this victory despite a series of effort by the party establishment to block him. Trump did not offer a manifesto except picking up some sensitive topic like religion based ban on immigration and the often repeated illegal immigrant issue.  Trump did not have a solid economic agenda and a credible foreign policy. His speeches weren't polished, nor were close to diplomatic norms. Trump kept on making crude statements. Trump was ridiculed by the neighboring countries, the national & international press, political pundits all over the world and some of the stalwarts within his own party establishment. Trump continued his rhetoric unmindful of all the ridicule and scoff. Trump gave enough postures which made good caricature of him. The press and TV had a good harvest of titillating news material every day.


The Republican Party did all in its power to block Trump from becoming the nominee of the party. The party engaged the media, fielded a host of seniors, leaders of faith and others to dissuade the voters from choosing Trump. The GOP establishment worried about the candidature of Donald Trump. The party could not make out what Donald Trump stands for. The party could not make out whether Donald Trump is conservative, liberal, both or nothing. If at all Trump stands for something, the party did not know whether his position on those issues will be stable at least until the election in November.

The voters knew that Trump can't deliver what he is promising, be it the ban on religion based immigration, deportation of illegal immigrants or building the replica of Berlin type wall on the border with Mexico. Despite all these, the primary voters continued to rally behind Donald Trump and placed him the front runner of the Republican Party presidential hopeful.  The voters credited him for speaking without political correctness. Donald Trump finally secured the Republican nomination against all the odds.


The GOP worry was genuine and continues to be so. It is the worry of all ordinary Americans. Americans do not see Donald Trump as a credible and reliable person to be entrusted with the World’s most powerful political position, the Presidency of the United States of America. Some even suspect Trump’s understanding of the American Constitution and his ability to make the right decisions when confronted with critical national and international issues.

The Republican Party, however, failed to introspect why and how the party brought itself into this pathetic situation. The party failed to own the responsibility for the situation, instead continued to offer choices which the people already had, but rejected. The party failed to accept that the voters did not vote for Donald Trump for his manifesto or political agenda. The voters did not vote Donald Trump for his personality or leadership style. The voters did not vote Trump for his record as a successful business man. The voters did not vote Trump for his national security stand. The voters did not vote Trump for his family values. The voters did not vote Trump for any conservative values. On the other hand, the voters preferred Donald Trump over the rest of the 16 Republican hopeful as Trump was the only person in that lot who was not a practicing professional politician, the lot they think betrayed their trust over the years.

Why do the people choose someone who has no record of Public Service, never been part of the administration, never served in the military nor was a law maker? The answer is simple. The American people are fed up with the politicking and logjam in Washington. The American people are frustrated with the partisan politics in the Congress and between the Congress and the White House.  The American people are fed up with the repeated threat of Government shutdown every now and then. The American people are fed up with the Gun violence targeting innocent school children and law abiding ordinary citizens and the Congress and President doing nothing to stop it. The American people are fed up with the increasing divide on race and religion and the crimes associated with it. The American people are fed up with young boys and girls crowd prisons when they should be in schools. The American people are fed up with the excesses by law enforcing agencies and the retaliation thereof. The American people are fed up wasting its tax-payer money fighting insensible wars abroad, destruction of humanity and then spending their money for the reconstruction of the devastation caused by the war in which they see no improvement to their life. The American people are not willing to accept that America follow the world, instead want it to lead from the front. The American middle class is concerned about the lowering wages. The American people therefore are frustrated, if not hate, with professional politicians. The voter sees all politicians insensitive, unmindful and incapable of addressing their concerns and live up to their hope and aspirations. The voters see the politicians as a bunch of self-serving individuals, no matter which party they belong to. 

Hilary Clinton: Hilary Clinton comes with her own baggage. The Democratic Party voters had already rejected Hillary’s ideas in 2008. In 2008, Hillary's ideas were considered second to that of Obama. The party choose Obama over Hillary in 2008 because Obama had a much more progressive agenda and enthused a large number of young and independent voters. Hillary Clinton continues to stand for the same what she stood for in 2008 and offers the same ideas. This means two things for the voters:

1.    The Democratic Party has nothing better or new to offer than the second choice which they had eight years ago.
2.    Obama failed to deliver what he promised and Democratic party did not choose the right candidate in 2008.

It will be suicidal for the Democratic Party to accept either position. Instead, the party is painstakingly explaining that Hillary will be a continuation of Obama’s eight years in power. The voters are aware that both the above are true. Neither Obama delivered what he promised nor the Democratic party has anything new to offer. Hillary’s refurbished image is not able to enthuse the voters. This was clearly evident from the support that her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders was receiving. Hillary is unlikely to draw large number independent and young voters towards her despite the effort by Bernie Sanders to project a united Democratic Party. Moreover, it is a conversation in every American household that Hillary is very low on trust factor, which was one of the major reason she was rejected in 2008 by the people. On top of all this, the e-mail controversy and the Clinton foundation is definitely going to be used against her by the Republicans. People do feel that the verdict on this would have been different if it was not the Clintons.

With all the negatives, there are two major items helping Hillary Clinton:

1.    The History that she may make by being the first Women President
2.    The extreme unpredictability of her opponent Donald Trump

Let us examine each of these one-by-one and see whether it will make any positive impact in the American People’s life:

Women President: Hillary Clinton is not one of the most respected women among American Women. A significant section of American women, especially the conservative women, considers Hillary as an opportunist, a power hungry, self-serving politician. Hillary, they think can compromise on any values when she finds it disadvantageous for her personal agenda. With all this, Hillary may get a few additional women votes more because some voters may not want to lose an opportunity for a Women President, which America was waiting for long. The voters like creating history. America made history in 2008 by electing a black President. But will creating history alone enough for a country as important as America in the world. The question also remains, did it the History created in 2008 anyway change the life of ordinary Americans? Similarly, will a Women President make any significant changes in the life of Women? There is no record of a Women President or Prime Minister improved the conditions of Women in the countries where women had the opportunity to lead for decades, India, Sri Lanka, Great Britain to name a few. But it is definitely an emotional issue with some Women and will work in Hillary’s favor.

Donald Trump the opponent: The significant item favoring Hillary as of today is her opponent. Trump is doing more damage to himself than to his opponent and indirectly benefitting Hillary Clinton. The GOP is further aiding in this mess by working against their own chosen Presidential Candidate.

When comes to the Interest of America, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are far below the stature of the American President that the people of USA would like to see in their leader. The Democratic camp is euphoric on the recent surge in poll numbers. These poll numbers suspicious and appears to be tactically driven by vested interests to be able to bargain with Trump and bring him to sing the conventional tune of the party line. Trump on the other hand knows very well that the moment he starts speaking the party line, his core support base will erode further. Trump is therefore trying his level best to be the original himself, speaking the voice of the sections who have been betrayed by professional politicians over the years and the one speaking without political correctness. After all, why should Donald Trump change his style? To benefit those party politicians who worked closed doors to deny him the nomination? His trusted advisers must be telling him that he should not change and stay the real Donald Trump. The establishment Republicans ultimately will have no option but to come in line with Donald Trump and support him. The alternative of supporting or voting for Hillary will be suicidal for the Republicans as this may even lead to a loss of majority in House and Senate at the same time. Many republicans seeking reelection is fearing that the continued standoff between the party and the top ticket (Presidential Nominee), will be counterproductive. Republicans therefore has no option but support Donald Trump at the end. This realization is likely to close the gap in polls between Trump and Hillary over the months to come.


So the common question everyone ask is whether Donald Trump is the answer. Will Trump be different from the professional self-serving politicians? The voters are still unclear of that answer. What the voters know and decided is that they want to punish the professional politicians for the years of breach of trust. A vote in the primary therefore was a punitive vote, neither in favor of Trump nor a vote for change. The voters clearly know that Trump is incapable of leading the change they want. Trump is strengthening the voters point of view with all his ill-advised choices and sound bites. Trumps family members are further providing fodder to that belief by their over enthusiastic interference. The entire convention was a family drama with no policy statement nor any statesman like speech. The subsequent Trump events also added fuel to the fire. Though, a large number of people will still vote for Donald Trump, a good number of them are still evaluating the risk of a Trump Presidency.  It appears to be advantage Hillary Clinton at this time. The dilemma of the voter continues at the moment. 

Sunday, August 7, 2016

Second term for Modi

UPA II win was completely because of the BJP overstatement of the "weak PM" reference to Dr Manmohan Singh. The more than required repetition of this phrase by LKA forced Sonia Gandhi to openly endorse Dr. Manmohan Singh's continuance as PM if UPA wins. This scuttled Sonia's strategy to insert RG post election.  Had LKA focussed on the misgovernance of UPA and achievements of NDA rather than the weakness of Dr Manmohan Singh, the results would have been in BJPs favor. Whatever said and done Dr. Manmohan Singh's image of an honest and well read individual still resonated with some voters. The other factor went against LKA was his own manipulative politics within BJP when Atalji was in power. LKAs shift from a hardcore Sang Parivar flag bearer to a Secular image through his comment on Jinnah also demotivated the grassroot workers.

Modi's task in 2019 will be tougher than 2014. If in 2014, Modi had the baggage of 2002 and a lack of national experience, 2019 will be completely on his promised delivery of 60 years worth development in 60 months. I was talking to a friend recently returned from a vacation to India. Though there is talk about so many things, things haven't started touching the ordinary people's life. Corruption at local level is still the same,  price of essential commodities is a matter of concern. Employment generation to the youth is still to be happening. The Go Slow approach on black money and action against corrupt politicians and officials of previous regime is being seen as a suspect of Modi Governments intentions in these areas. Legislation on black money and benami laws are significantly diluted with too many exemptions. On top of this, the survival instinct will unite the opposition parties. The only way Modi can win 2019 is going rural and substantially increasing the BJP vote share. Ignore the netas, get close to the people, touch the ordinary people's life then people will remember in the polling booth